Abstract: The numerical simulation and statistical analysis method are used to predict the height of the fractured zone in underground coal mining. This paper establishes a mining system composed of a mining-body and an affected-body, based on the system theory and the characteristics of modern coal mining technology,the mining-bursting physics mod- el,and the relationship between mining energy and strain energy. Analogizing the rock fissure with blasted rock effect, the height of water conducting fissure zone is identical to the safety distance of blasted rock. Using the conservation of energy and momentum,the similar fractured zone height is obtained,including the parameters of mining process and the overlying strata. The analysis of the factors sensitivity result shows that the mining and equivalent body density fac- tors are more sensitive than others. The test verification at Xinglongzhuang mining area indicate that the relative height error is about 8. 8% .