硬岩岩爆预测预警研究进展

Research progress of rockburst prediction and early warning in hard rock underground engineering

  • 摘要: 岩爆作为一种复杂的、灾难性的地质灾害,自18世纪有资料记录出现以来,就引起了强烈关注。迄今为止,虽然许多学者对岩爆预测预警做了一系列研究,但仍是一个世界性难题。本文系统梳理了现有的岩爆预测预警方法,按其特征将岩爆预测预警方法分为指标判据法、数值指标方法、应用数学方法和现场监测法4个大类。以时间为主轴分析了不同岩爆预测预警方法的发展和演化情况。归纳并评价了不同类别预测预警方法的优缺点及适用范围,同时分析了岩爆预测预警方法类别内部和类别之间的联系及相关性。指出了岩爆预测预警的发展趋势,并对岩爆预测研究的工作重点提出了建议。通过对4类不同岩爆预测预警方法整理和归纳的结果表明:① 指标判据法划分为单指标判据和综合指标判据,单指标判据是岩石发生岩爆的必要条件,包含应力条件(应力判据)、岩石性质条件即岩石固有岩爆倾向性条件(能量判据、脆性判据)、岩体质量条件; 综合指标判据主要是综合地应力(应力判据)、岩石岩爆倾向性(能量判据、脆性判据)、围岩地质条件(岩爆围岩质量判据)的信息。② 岩爆数值指标是从静力学向动力学发展,从单一应用矿山的岩爆指标向多用途多功能发展,从无法表征岩体破坏的弹性理论,向能较好反映岩体破坏后力学性质的劣化过程的弹(脆)塑性理论发展。③ 以是否依赖相应工程岩爆案例和岩爆指标判据将现有预测岩爆的数学方法划分为两类,即基于岩爆案例样本训练的岩爆综合预测方法和基于综合指标判据的岩爆综合预警方法。④ 现场监测法是通过直接或间接监测一系列应力、变形、岩体损伤等参数,推断岩爆发生与否或者岩爆等级。⑤ 随着微震监测技术、大数据及深度学习等人工智能的发展,岩爆预测预警将会更加精细化和智能化。

     

    Abstract: Rockburst, as a complex and catastrophic geological hazard, has attracted great attention in research since it was recorded in the 18th century.Currently, although many scholars have done a lots of research on rockburst prediction and early warning, it is still a worldwide problem.In this paper, the existing methods of rockburst prediction are systematically reviewed.Taking time as the main axis, the development and evolution of different rockburst prediction and early warning methods are analyzed.According to their characteristics, the methods of rockburst prediction are divided into four categories:index criterion method, numerical index method, applied mathematics method and in-situ monitoring method.Then, the advantages, disadvantages and application scope of different types of prediction and early warning methods are summarized and evaluated.At the same time, the relationship and correlation among different types of rockburst prediction and early warning methods are analyzed.Finally, the development trend of rockburst prediction and early warning is analyzed, and some suggestions are put forward for the future research of rockburst prediction.The index criterion methods are divided into single index criterions and comprehensive index criterions.It is highlighted that the single index criterion is the necessary condition for rockburst, including stress condition (stress criterion), rock property condition (energy criterion, brittleness criterion) and rock mass quality condition.The comprehensive index criterion mainly synthesizes the information of in-situ stress (stress criterion), rockburst tendency of rock (energy criterion, brittleness criterion) and surrounding rock geological conditions.The numerical index of rockburst develops from statics to dynamics, from single application of rockburst in mine to multi-purpose and multi-function, from elastic theory which can’t characterize rock mass failure to elastic (brittle) plastic theory which can better reflect the deterioration process of mechanical properties of rock mass after failure.The existing mathematical methods for rockburst prediction can be divided into two sub-categories according to whether they depend on the rockburst cases and the index criteria methods.The in-situ monitoring method uses the monitored data of response of excavated rock mass such as stress, deformation and damage of rock mass to assess the stability of rock mass and to infer rockburst occurrence and intensity.With the development of micro-seismic monitoring technique, artificial intelligence, large data and deep learning, rockburst prediction will be more refined and intelligent.

     

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